Market Morsel: What should I plant this year?
Market Morsel
It is seeding time coming up, and decisions will most likely have been made on what to plant. We get asked this every year: what should I plant? We can give you an indication of what the price is but is there any relationship between the price at seeding and the price at harvest?
For this analysis, we are using the CBOT wheat price (in A$), which gives a good indication of the global price for wheat and influences the price we receive in Australia.
The first chart below shows the change in price between April and December over the past 35 years. At first glance, we can see that, more often than not, the price in December is higher. In the past 35 years, it has been higher in 20 years and lower in 15 years at harvest.
When a farmer considers whether to plant wheat in April, the current price can seem like a tempting signal to guide the decision. After all, if prices are high at seeding time, it might feel like a safer bet that the crop will be profitable. However, while April prices do show a strong correlation with December prices (around 0.72), they don’t guarantee a positive outcome. History shows that in 43% of years, the harvest price was lower than it was at seeding. So, planting based on a strong April price alone can backfire if market conditions shift.
More importantly, planting is a production decision, not a marketing one. While price matters, it’s just one of many factors to weigh—alongside input costs, moisture levels, crop rotations, risk management strategies, and market outlook. A high April price might signal strong demand or tight supply, but that same price can also attract more planting globally, leading to lower prices by harvest. So rather than using April price as the deciding factor, it’s better used as one input in a broader decision framework, helping to shape expectations and marketing plans—not production itself.
Our main advice is to work out with your agronomist what the best thing to plant is based on the conditions and rotation. The price is a secondary concern unless you are going to lock in some price.
