Wagyu lull
Market Morsel
The F1 Wagyu indicator has continued to track below long-term averages in 2025, as premiums over broader cattle market benchmarks remain compressed. July results confirm the market is still operating in the lower end of historical pricing.
Through July, the F1 Wagyu price averaged 962c/kg cwt, holding above the May low of 848c/kg but well below the 2022 peaks. The National Feeder Steer Indicator (NFSI) closed July at 792c/kg, while the National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) was at 747c/kg, narrowing the F1 Wagyu premium spread to just 21% versus the NFSI.
The industry range for F1 Wagyu prices has tracked relatively sideways in 2025, sitting around 850–1050 c/kg cwt across most months. This mirrors past oversupply phases, where lower-quality lines or greater numbers on the market have seen values remain subdued.
The price premium of Wagyu F1 industry average prices to the NFSI tells a similar story. From a high above 600c/kg lwt in early 2022, F1 Wagyu premiums to feeder steers have eroded steadily, hovering about 50 cents above zero by mid-2025. This reflects both softer Wagyu-specific demand and relative strength in broader feeder cattle prices this year.
On a cents per kilogram basis, industry range data shows that 2025 monthly values have mostly averaged around 90 cents above the NFSI over the 2025 season, thus far. This aligns with the 2018–19 oversupply era, when quality variation in the F1 pool weighed on overall market performance.
The industry average premium to the NFSI has narrowed from around 140 cent premium at the start of 2025 towards a 45 cent premium as at the end of July, reflecting a broader picture of domestic oversupply and sluggish international Wagyu demand. Without a catalyst for demand recovery in premium beef markets offshore, or a tightening in F1 supply, the likelihood is that the market will continue to operate in the lower deciles of its long-term premium range through the remainder of 2025.