The Grain Bullets
Main drivers of the grain market
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Wheat prices slump to multi-year lows – CBOT Wheat futures hit A$291 to end the week, hitting multi-year lows. ASX futures droped to A$317, keeping basis at A$24, since July basis has been at +A$20 to A+$30
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Black Sea and Australian supply outlook improves – SovEcon lifted Russian 2025/26 export forecast to 43.7Mt; Ukraine’s August wheat exports hit 1.89Mt with more expected in September; ABARES raised Australia’s crop outlook to 33.8Mt. There is still plenty of time until harvest, but the likelihood remains for a well-above-average crop despite the challenges in South Australia and Victoria.
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US-China trade tensions weigh on soybeans – deteriorating relations, highlighted by Xi, Putin and Kim’s joint military parade and China–Russia pipeline deal, left US soybeans exposed, with no Chinese orders yet logged for 2025/26. China seems slow to arrive at the negotiating table with Trump, instead focusing on other partners.
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Canola dragged down by Canadian harvest and weak oils – Canada’s canola harvest applied pressure, while crude and vegoil weakness pushed Paris rapeseed futures lower through the week. China is expected to maintain the tariffs on Canada until at least March. The Canadian government are assisting the domestic biofuels industry to create additional local demand for Canadian canola.
