MLA September 2025 sheep industry revisions
Market Morsel
Meat & Livestock Australia’s September 2025 update has significantly lifted its expectations for the national flock while trimming short-term slaughter forecasts. After widespread drought across southern Australia in 2023–24, seasonal recovery is now encouraging a more measured rebuild phase, led by ewe retention and improving feed availability
The national flock is estimated at 74.2 million head in 2025, a 6 percent fall from 2024, but MLA now expects steady recovery to 75.7 million in 2026 and 78.9 million in 2027. These figures represent a substantial upward revision from the March 2025 projections of 73.2, 71.9 and 74.1 million respectively. Improved rainfall prospects, particularly across eastern states, are expected to underpin this rebound, though the recovery remains slower in South Australia and Victoria where pastures have been heavily depleted.
Lamb slaughter forecasts have been slightly lowered to reflect producer intent to rebuild flocks. Volumes are now projected at 24.9 million head in 2025, 24.3 million in 2026, and 25.6 million in 2027, all down from earlier forecasts of 26.2, 25.3 and 25.5 million. MLA notes that while the new season lamb flush was strong early in 2025, throughput will ease as ewe retention rises. Heavier carcase weights (averaging 24.5 kg in 2025 and 25.4 kg by 2027) will partly offset the lower slaughter levels, sustaining national production near record highs.
For adult sheep, the downward adjustment is sharper. Sheep slaughter is forecast at 10.0 million head in 2025, easing to 8.2 million in 2026 before lifting modestly to 9.1 million by 2027. These figures reflect a slower liquidation rate as producers rebuild breeding capacity and retain older ewes. The mutton market, already tight, will continue to face constrained supply in 2026 before stabilising thereafter.
MLA’s outlook suggests the next two years will mark a transitional phase—one where supply moderates but carcase weights, efficiency, and feedlot utilisation improve. By 2027, with stronger pasture conditions and a restored ewe base, Australia’s flock is projected to return to near-decade highs, setting the stage for renewed expansion in both lamb and mutton exports.
