Demand outweighs fragile US dollar

Wool Market Update 17th November

“The only role of Economic Forecasting is to make astrology look respectable” –  J.K. Galbraith

The spot auction continued the rally that began last week Most merino qualities rose 2% across the week. The rise was even more impressive when you consider that the USD has weaken 2% since the close of sales last week. This reinforces the long-held belief that although the vast majority of wool is transacted in USD the driver of the market is the result of the balance between supply and demand. Throughout this season supply has been steady but demand intermittent at best. This week’s uptick in demand did more cover the negative impact of the fragile USD.

Activity in the forward market continued to disappoint. Exporter/trader bidding remained conservative to begin the week but moved up ahead of auctions Tuesday. That confidence was supported by the stronger market and improved offshore interest. New levels set by buyers towards the close of the week have November and December priced marginally under spot and January and February flat to a modest premium. The lack of forward hedging offers from the growers continues to stagnant the market.

Next week should provide hedging opportunities with exporters keen to cover some of their forward exposure. With risk still high on the agenda the hopefully the improved levels will prove attractive.