Grain intake lower than a drought year?
The Snapshot
- The harvest is going to be slow, that’s obvious.
- The intake data for Graincorp shows that receivals are at 43% of average levels.
- Queensland is ahead of typical levels at 1.3mmt against an average intake of 903kmt.
- New South Wales has currently taken in 389kmt, against a typical 2.46mmt.
- Victoria is massively underperforming at 16kmt against normal levels of
- The harvest is going to be a long slog. There are going to be paddocks which will be tough to harvest with bogging.
The Detail
As we all know, the east coast has been battered by rain in recent months and has slowed down harvest. I thought it was worthwhile having a look at the data to see how far behind we are.
At EP3 we have kept a hold of the weekly Graincorp deliveries going back to 2010, which gives us a good indication of the pace of the harvest in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria.
Let’s look at it on an overall basis. Let’s compare the current cumulative deliveries to week 48. The most recent data shows the Graincorp network receiving 1.7mmt. This is against an average of 3.9mmt between 2010 and 2021.
This represents a level of intake considerably lower than average and close to drought levels.
Let’s look at it from a state-by-state basis (see charts below), as this gives a picture of how variable the harvest has become.
Queensland
The Queensland intake is currently at 1.3mmt, which is higher than the average of 900kmt for the same period.
New South Wales
New South Wales has been under almost constant rain for the past two months, and that can be seen in the intake. At present 380kmt has been delivered, against an average of 2.4mmt,
That really does place the harvest at the very low end of the scale.
Victoria
While NSW is behind, it is Victoria which is really far behind where the intake would typically be. At present only 16kmt has been delivered into Graincorp storage. This is only 3% of the average 622kmt which would typically be delivered into Victorian storages at this time of year.
So what does it mean?
It was always expected that harvest would be delayed, and it is majorly delayed. Whilst this is just the data from the Graincorp sites, it is likely representative of the other sites.
The harvest is likely in New South Wales and Victoria to be around a fortnight behind schedule (at least).
The worst paddocks are going to take a long time to get onto, as bogging is clearly going to be a major issue.
Finished by the boxing day test is not going to be a realistic target for most. Finished by Valentine day might be a more realistic goal.
