Decile Drop: Local wheat (September)

Decile Drop - September

The tables below display the spot APW price for ports around Australia. Included are two timeframes of deciles, long term from 2010 & 2016 to present.

The tables display nominal prices relevant to each decile range, which can be used to get an understanding of how high (or low) the current price is in relation to historical pricing. A decile table measures how often, historically, prices have fallen above (or below) a particular pricing point.

It gives a brief snapshot of whether a market has more upside or downside and how large this may be.

For example, if a price is at its 40% decile, this means that 40% of the time, prices have been below that value and 60% of prices higher.

Similarly, a 90% decile means that 90% of the time, prices have been lower and higher just 10% of the time. Please note that a price can’t reside outside of the 100 percentile.

At the bottom of each table is the current price and the percentage decile ranking for that price.

Comment:

The decile rank of wheat around the country has improved considerably since the last update, with all zones above the 80th percentile, meaning prices have been lower 80% of the time (from 2010).

The majority of the improvement has been a result of the impact of pricing moves overseas. Whilst some may use deciles as a trigger point, it’s important to note that they only provide an insight into how the price sits compared to the past. They generally shouldn’t be used in isolation.