One of the things I have heard in recent days is that the record canola crop had replaced the volume lost through the Canadian crop. Let’s look into this.
The first chart below shows the annual exports of Canola from Australia and Canada since 2010. The drought in 2021 has drastically reduced the Canadian capacity to export canola. On a year to year basis Canadian exports are down 5.2mmt.
Australia has had a big crop, and our exports are set to increase based on this. However, they are only up 1.3mmt to 4.6mmt.
The second chart shows the global trade in canola, and overall the trade is down 3.5mmt. Whilst other nations have stepped up with higher exports, such as Ukraine (+300kmt), the reality is that no one is capable of filling the gap left by Canada.
The gap in supply will not be filled until the middle of next year, providing production gets back to normal levels around the world.