Market Morsel: Can we trust that China will be a buyer for grain?

Market Morsel

The Chinese market has been very important for Australian agriculture for the past few years. We have reported this a lot, and since 2020, export volumes of grains have been very strong.

Prior to 2020, the combined imports of corn, wheat, and barley barely tipped over 15mmt, but in 2021, they peaked above 50mmt for the first time.

The data on grain imports for the calendar year of 2024 is out now from the Chinese government. In 2024, they imported 32mmt of wheat, barley and corn, which is substantially below 2023 at 51mmt.

Imports into China are dropping; this has especially been the case with wheat. The Chinese government have reported record production of wheat, which is a common occurrence.

In 2024, we relied on China as an export market for a large volume of our wheat (and barley). We expect that with the high domestic production and economic woes, China may drop their import volumes in at least the first half of 2025.

We also hold concerns about the tariff war between the US and China, which could result in China preferencing US grains over Australia to placate the current administration.