Barley remains impacted by the absence of China. Since May 2020, one of the world’s largest importers of barley has been effectively unavailable to Australian exporters.
Barley tends to be at a discount to wheat due to its nutritional difference. The first chart below shows the monthly spread between F1 and ASW.
The discount to F1 has been large since the introduction of the Chinese anti-dumping tariff was introduced.
However, the spread has been closing the gap in recent months back closer to the longer-term average.
This is a good sign that the market is getting back to a more normal discount. The discount is still larger than previous to the tariff introduction, but it is better than it was.
Let’s hope that relations between Australia and China can thaw and open back up the market.