Market Morsel: France gets the wooden wheat spoon.

Market Morsel

The world’s eyes are on France for the Paris Olympics. As a grain market analyst, my eyes are on the performance of their wheat crop; this year, they are walking away with the wooden spoon.

France is an important wheat producer, on average producing 36mmt of wheat per year over the past decade. They are also a significant exporter to some of the North African nations.

This year, they have suffered through wet conditions. This has resulted to a downgrade in their wheat crop.

In the first chart below, the percentage of the wheat crop which is good/excellent is displayed for each year from 2012 to present, for week 30. The current conditions are 50% good/excellent. This is the worst condition since 2016.

The second chart displays wheat production versus the conditions. I have highlighted two other years when conditions were poor (2016, 2020), both of which had considerably lower production.

The 2024 is still an estimate, but the expectations are for a crop around 29mmt.

What does this mean for Aussie farmers? As one of the major exporters, France’s poor crop impacts the global supply and demand balance. Whilst it won’t cause a huge jump in pricing, it is bullish for pricing.