Market Morsel: Our competition falls back.
SovEcon, the leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm, cut 2021 Russian wheat crop forecast from 81.7 MMT to 80.9 MMT (85.9 MMT in 2020, 85.3 MMT ex. Crimea) on smaller winter wheat area and worsening spring wheat conditions.
- Pre-harvest winter wheat area was cut by 0.2 m to 16.8 m ha on confirmation of substantial winterkill in the eastern of the Center and Volgograd region
- Winter wheat yield was raised from 3.50 mt/ha to 3.51 mt/ha on further improvement of winter wheat conditions
- Spring wheat area has been upped by 0.1 m ha to 12.8 m ha on fast seeding pace. Russian farmers have planted 11.5 ma ha, a record high since 2016. This partly reflects substantial replanting of winter wheat in the Center.
- Spring wheat yield has been cut from 1.75 mt/ha to 1.71 mt/ha on rapidly deteriorating weather conditions in the key regions. Eastern parts of the Volga Valley, the Urals, and Western Siberia have received only 20-60% of normal precipitation during the previous month
- Winter wheat typically account for around 70% of Russian wheat harvest
- USDA estimates new Russian crop at 85 MMT (ex. Crimea)
Spring weather conditions were favourable for the new winter wheat crop. However, there is a big question mark over the spring wheat crop now. In many cases, farmers are seeding in dry topsoil, hoping to see rains soon, but the current weather outlook remains disappointingly dry.
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