Market Morsel: Russia rises on rain.
SovEcon, the leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm, revised Russia’s and Ukraine’s crop forecasts on good weather and area expansion
Russia is #1 world wheat exporter; Ukraine is one of the top world corn and wheat exporters and the major US competitor in China’s corn market
Wheat crop: 84.6 mmt (+2.2 mmt) on:
- Further improvement of winter wheat conditions in the South and the Center thanks to ample precipitation in recent weeks. Yields in the South (#1 wheat grower) are predicted to be close to record-high
- Increase of spring wheat area and improvement of spring wheat conditions in the Center
- The above was partially offset by further deterioration of the weather conditions in the eastern part of the Volga Valley, the Urals, and Siberia which continue to suffer from drought
USDA: 86 mmt, ex.Crimea (est.crop – 0.7-0.8 mmt)
Total grains and pulses: 131.0 mmt (+1.2 mmt)
Corn crop: 38.3 mmt (+1.5 mmt) on:
- Higher area (5.40 mln ha), just marginally below record-high of 5.43 mln ha
- Overall good crop conditions, except northern parts of the country
USDA: 37.5 mmt
Wheat: 29.2 mmt (+0.3 mmt) on good crop conditions, especially in the South
USDA: 29.5 mmt inc.Crimea (est.crop – 0.7-0.8 mmt)
Total grains and pulses: 78.1 mmt (+2.1 mmt)
Weather in the Black Sea remains friendly for the new crop. Ample precipitation around the Black Sea in recent weeks improved the outlook for corn and wheat crop and offset consequences of the drought in Russia’s Siberia and Urals.
Current Ukraine’s corn crop estimate is already record-high but we feel that estimates could go substantially higher even with limited weather cooperation. Ukraine’s corn will be a very serious threat to the US in Chinese market next season
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