SovEcon, the leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm, upped the 2021 Russian wheat crop forecast from 80.7mmt to 81.7mmt (85.9mmt in 2020, 85.3mmt ex. Crimea).
The barley crop estimate was increased by 0.1mmt to 19.7mmt (20.9mmt in 2020). The corn crop forecast remained unchanged at 14.4mmt (13.9mmt in 2020). The total grains and pulses crop estimate was increased by 0.7mmt to 129.2mmt (133.5mmt in 2020).
The increase in the wheat crop forecast reflects the revision of the pre-harvest area from 16.8 mln ha to 17 mln ha against the background of a lower expected winterkill.
We also raised the estimate of the average winter wheat yield from 3.48 mt/ha to 3.5 mt/ha amid the overall improvement in crop conditions, mainly in the South, a key wheat region. The estimate of spring wheat planting remains at 12.7 mln ha, the yield — at 1.75 t/ha.
In the May WASDE, the USDA estimated Russia’s wheat crop at an almost record 85mmt (ex. Crimea). SovEcon believes that the ministry has not properly reflected challenging winter conditions in parts of Russia and their effect on winterkill and future yield.
The weather in recent weeks has been favourable for the new wheat crop potential. We see good moisture reserves and almost all wheat regions. We could call it a setup for another bumper crop if not for the very challenging winter and autumn conditions in parts of Russia.
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