SovEcon, a leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm, has increased its 2021/22 Russian wheat export estimate by 0.4 MMT to 33.9 MMT despite the war in the Black Sea. Russia is the #1 world wheat exporter.
The export forecast has been upped amid high world prices, weak ruble, and rapid shipments in the second half of March. An additional factor is that some wheat demand had to switch from Ukraine to Russia. Ukrainian terminals are still not operating due to the war.
Russian wheat exports faced issues in early March because of a lack of vessels and problems with payments, however, they have been mostly resolved.
We expect that in the absence of additional restrictions, the Russian wheat export quota will be filled fully. Russia introduced an 8 mmt wheat exports quota on February 15 which will be in place until July.
USDA estimate Russian 21/22 wheat exports at 32.0 mmt.