Market Morsel: Russian wheat crop tipped to rise
SovEcon, a leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm, upped 2021 Russia’s wheat crop forecast from 76.2 MMT to 79.3 MMT.
Crop conditions have improved dramatically in the South thanks to mild winter and ample precipitation in the recent weeks. As a result, an estimate of winter kill in the region has been cut substantially. The region accounts for almost half of the winter wheat area.
Crop conditions in the Center and the Volga Valley worsened over winter. The main factor is ice-crust which have been on fields for too long, 3 weeks or more, which is likely to result in additional winter-kill.
The all-Russian estimate of winter-kill estimate has been cut from 16% to 9.9%.
Overall conditions were favourable for winter wheat in the Black Sea region: ample precipitation in 2021 and no threatening temperatures.
The estimate of Ukraine’s wheat crop has been upped to 27.8 MMT from 27 MMT on good weather conditions.
In 2020 Russia harvested 85.9 MMT of wheat (85.3 ex Crimea), Ukraine produced 25 MMT of wheat.
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