SovEcon, a leading Black Sea agricultural markets research firm, upped its Russian 2020/21 (July/June) wheat export forecast by 1.2 MMT to 39.1 MMT.
The estimate reflects the high shipment pace in recent months ahead of the introduction of export taxes which started on February 15.
An additional factor is the official confirmation of a permanent tax from June 2, which is forcing farmers to sell more aggressively and support exports.
The domestic market is close to reflecting the second tax (€50/mt) in the ruble prices, and in the world market, we see an increase in prices which we expect to continue. Traders’ margins are back in positive territory.
Export is also supported by the activation of shipments to Custom Union countries, mainly Kazakhstan. February wheat exports to the Customs Union are estimated at 0.2 MMT. Russia ships grain to the Union tax-free.
Russia is the #1 world wheat exporter.
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