Market Morsel: Wheat aren’t in Kansas anymore

Grain | 24th May 2023 | By Andrew Whitelaw

Market Morsel

We are getting into the critical northern hemisphere growing period. The next two months will largely settle the biggest proportion of the worlds wheat crop. Our markets are based on simple supply and demand economics. More crops = lower price, and less crops = higher price.

So let’s look at the USA.


The map below shows the individual states percentage of the crop which is considered to be good/excellent.

A large proportion of the Midwest is in poor condition. This is especially the case for Kansas, which is important as it produces a large proportion of the nation’s winter wheat crop.

The conditions map follows the current drought map fairly closely, which is pretty obvious.


The US winter wheat crop has an overall good/excellent condition rating of 31%, this is actually slightly better than at the same time last year. At present, it is the 6th lowest ranking for this time of year.

The Kansas winter wheat conditions are currently the biggest concern, with only 10% of the crop in good/excellent condition.

We can already see this impacting wheat pricing, with the Kansas wheat futures (higher protein) moving to a strong premium, highlighting the concern that the trade has about this crop.