The Grain Bullets

Main drivers of the grain market

A shorter update this week, with less happening in the market.

Eyes on trade deals
Wheat prices fell early in the week, pressured by disappointment over the lack of a US-China trade deal and new US tariff threats against major Asian importers. If Trump continues with major tariffs against our asian neighbours, and they retaliate, it could lead to increased competitiveness of our exports.

Ukraine Issues
Midweek, wheat prices rebounded strongly as the market reacted to reports of weak yields in Ukraine. Exports from Ukraine are lagging behind last year. Ukraine is a major supplier of wheat to the market, and if it falls back, it can have a positive impact on pricing.

Russian expectations

On 8 July 2025, SovEcon raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in 2025/26 by 2.1 million tonnes to 42.9 million tonnes, citing improved crop prospects and stronger price competitiveness, with new-crop Russian wheat offered below rival Black Sea origins.