A gold medal performance

The Detail

We’re in the thick of Olympics fever and the Japanese aren’t only doing a great hosting job, in trying COVID-19 circumstances, they’re also lifting their game when it comes to Australian beef exports. The Department of Agriculture, Water and Environment (DAWE) beef trade figures for July 2021 demonstrate Japan has hit the highest monthly flows of Australian beef exports this year after a 15% gain noted on the volumes set in June.

Australian beef consignments to Japan in July hit 24,199 tonnes swt, which are the largest monthly flows since November 2020 and are not sitting just 7% under the five-year average seasonal trend for July. The lift in beef export volumes to Japan see them cement their gold medal placing as the top destination for Aussie beef with 27% of the market share of total beef exports from Australia in 2021.

South Korean meat consumers are maintaining the silver medal position with 18% of the market share of Australian beef exports this season. Beef export flows to South Korea managed a 12% lift in volumes from June to July to see 14,006 tonnes swt reported, a meagre 2% under the five-year average for July.

Chinese beef demand from Australia during July is running 15% below the five-year seasonal average. Volumes picked up marginally from June, posting a 4% increase to see 12,279 tonnes shipped in July. Since April beef exports from Australia to China have been averaging monthly levels around 18% under the seasonal average pattern, after spending much of the first quarter of the season running close to the average levels.

Despite the weaker Chinese demand for Aussie beef in the last four months China is managing to hold onto the bronze medal place, in terms of market share of total Australian beef exports for 2021, with 16% of the total beef export flows.

Australia’s beef export volumes to the USA remain subdued with 13,875 tonnes swt noted for July, which represents levels that are 39% under the five-year average for July. Since the start of 2021 beef exports from Australia to the USA have averaged monthly volumes that are 45% under the five-year average trend and this lacklustre performance, combined with Australia’s tight beef supply, has been keeping total beef export flows from Australia well below trend this season.

Total beef export volumes for July managed to hit the second highest monthly tally this year at 81,171 tonnes swt, after posting a 10% gain on the June beef export figures. However, despite the month on month lift, total beef exports remain below the normal fluctuation in trade volumes that could be expected during this time in the season, according to the 70% range*, and the July 2021 figures represent beef trade volumes that are nearly 17% below the five-year trend for July.

* Note –  The 70% range highlights where the export flows have fluctuated for 70% of the time over the last decade. Movements within this range would be considered relatively normal, outside of this range suggest flows that are becoming unusually low or uncharacteristically high based on the previous seasons.

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