A more constrained rebuild

June 2023 Cattle Projections

Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) have released their mid-year cattle industry projections and their forecast for the growth of the Australian beef herd has been moderated somewhat, as higher slaughter estimates bite into the ability for the herd to increase. In 2023 the herd is expected to reach 28.7 million head, a revision down of 0.4% from the January 2023 projections.

MLA have also revised the 2024 and 2025 herd projections downward by 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively. In 2024 the herd is expected to hit 28.9 million head and reach toward 29.2 million head in 2025.

Underpinning the slower herd growth over the next few years has been upward revisions to annual cattle slaughter volumes. In 2023 MLA now project slaughter to hit 6.95 million head, an increase of 4.9% on the January 2023 estimates of 6.6 million head. Slaughter is forecast to grow further into 2024 too. MLA have revised the 2024 slaughter from 7.2 million head to 7.6 million head, a lift of 5.2%. In 2025 MLA now project annual slaughter to reach 8.35 million head, 4.4% higher than the 8 million head forecast in their industry update from January 2023.