A more moderate decline
March 2025 Cattle Projections
Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) has released its updated cattle market projections for March 2025, incorporating revised herd estimates and slaughter expectations. While the overall trend remains one of contraction, the pace of herd liquidation has been moderated somewhat compared to earlier projections.
Herd Size Adjustments
MLA’s latest outlook has revised the 2025 cattle herd estimate upward by 1.9%, bringing it to 30.1 million head, compared to 29.6 million head projected in September 2024. This suggests that the decline in herd numbers is progressing at a slower rate than initially expected.
Looking ahead, the 2026 herd estimate has also been revised higher, now anticipated at 29.2 million head, an increase of 1.8% from the previous forecast of 28.7 million head. However, the downward trend is expected to continue into 2027, with the herd projected to fall further to 28.8 million head.
Cattle Slaughter Projections
Despite the moderated decline in herd size, MLA has increased its slaughter forecasts for the coming years:
- 2025: Projected slaughter has been revised up 1.8% to 8.5 million head (from 8.4 million head previously).
- 2026: Slaughter is now expected to reach 8.1 million head, a 1.9% increase from the prior estimate of 8 million head.
- 2027: A further reduction is forecast, with 7.9 million head expected to be processed.
Although it seems somewhat counterintuitive for slaughter projections to be revised higher while herd estimates are also increasing, this could suggest updated MLA surveying/analysis practices have underpinned this subtle adjustment and/or beef producers are being more productive.
Overall, the latest MLA update suggests a more gradual decline in herd size than initially forecast, but still a continuation of herd contraction into 2027. The upward revisions in slaughter estimates point to ongoing liquidation pressures, as on-farm animal husbandry/genetic and breeding methodology improvements benefit the efficiency of the Australian beef sector.
