A time to kill
The Snapshot
- In recent years the MLA weekly cattle slaughter figures, when converted to quarterly totals, have tended to run between 85% to 95% of the ABS quarterly slaughter numbers.
- The MLA cattle slaughter volumes of nearly 1.2 million head for quarter two 2021 suggest that the ABS reported slaughter total for quarter two is likely to fall somewhere between 1.4 and 1.6 million head.
- In order to achieve the MLA target of 6.4 million head by the end of the 2021 season we would need to see east coast weekly cattle slaughter between 105,000 to 110,000 head, or increasing by about 15%-20% from here on in, to meet the 6.4 annual figure forecast by MLA.
- If weekly slaughter volumes remain unchanged, averaging about 91,000 head per week for the rest of the year, the annual cattle slaughter figure is likely to come in at only 5.7 million head.
The Detail
When it comes to cattle slaughter data Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) publish a weekly figure and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) release a quarterly figure. Due to differing collection methods the two statistics don’t completely match up. However, they generally follow the same trend.
In recent years the MLA weekly figures, when converted to quarterly totals, have tended to run at lower levels to the ABS quarterly slaughter numbers, often fluctuating between 85% to 95% of the ABS figures. The downside of the ABS slaughter figures is that they are often released months after the event. Indeed, the quarter two figures for 2021 are due to be released in August, so there is quite a lag before the official ABS cattle slaughter volumes are known.
However, we can get an estimate of where the quarter two ABS slaughter is likely to fall, based on an approximation from the MLA weekly figures, which are currently up to date as of early July.
The MLA cattle slaughter volumes of nearly 1.2 million head for quarter two 2021 suggest that the ABS totals are likely to fall somewhere between 1.4 and 1.6 million head.
Given that MLA are forecasting annual cattle slaughter to come in at 6.4 million head by the end of 2021 we will need to see MLA reporting circa 2.7 to 2.8 million head slaughter over the second half of 2021 in order to reach the 6.4 million head target by the end of the year.
These MLA slaughter figures for the second half of 2021 would equate ABS reported slaughter levels between 3.5 million head to 3.7 million head.
So far this season the MLA east coast weekly slaughter has averaged 91,000 head each week, which is nearly 30% under the seasonal five-year pattern. If average weekly slaughter volumes remain at these levels for the rest of the season the annual cattle slaughter will come in at 5.7 million head, or around 700,000 head under the MLA forecast.
In order to meet the MLA target of 6.4 million head by the end of the 2021 season we would need to see MLA reporting average east coast weekly cattle slaughter between 105,000 to 110,000 head. This isn’t out of the question as slaughter volumes during the second half of 2020 averaged around 108,000 head per week, but it would require weekly cattle slaughter to lift by about 15%-20% from here on in to meet the 6.4 annual figure forecast by MLA. Personally I think we are likely to see annual cattle slaughter volumes closer to 6 million head by the end of 2021.
