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Market Morsel
Recent revisions to the Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) cattle projections have allowed us to re-calculate the EP3 fair value modelling on the National Heavy Steer Indicator (NHSI). In 2022 the fair value model predicted a potential range in the NHSI of 415c/kg lwt to 580c/kg lwt. We ended up seeing a range in the indicator of 362c/kg to 464c/kg, so we were a little too optimistic in the end.
In terms of annual average pricing the model was forecasting a value of 496c/kg lwt for 2022 and the actual annual average NHSI came in at 433c/kg lwt, so the model ended up being about 14% too generous.
This year we have seen a reasonable correction in the NHSI, currently the annual average price sits at 325c/kg lwt. The fair value model suggests an annual average of 344c/kg lwt so we are now a little undervalued (circa 6%), according to the model. The model anticipates a range for 2023 between 285c/kg lwt to 400c/kg lwt.
Into 2024 the model (based on current forecasted inputs*) predicts a range of 276c/kg lwt to 387c/kg cwt and an annual average of 332c/kg lwt. Slight pressures remain on the market into 2025 with the annual average price dipping further to around 310c/kg lwt and a likely range over the year of 258c/kg lwt to 361c/kg lwt.
* – Bear in mind that any changes to current model inputs will impact the fair value ranges and annual average predictions supplied in this article. The EP3 NHSI model aims to predict the fair value level of the NHSI based on a selection of demand and supply factors that have historically exerted an influence on the NHSI. There is no guarantee that this model will continue to be accurate into the future and any individuals considering this model and it’s output in their decision to buy/sell cattle should exercise caution, consider their own individual circumstances and seek advice specific to their personal situation.