Beef’s weak start

The Detail

The Department of Agriculture, Water and Environment (DAWE) released its opening red meat export figures for 2021 and it wasn’t a good start. Although, given our tight supply, appreciating currency and high domestic cattle prices it is somewhat unsurprising to see the lacklustre beef export volumes.

Total beef exports for January 2021 came in at just 49,604 tonnes swt, which is the lowest January figure since 2012. This represents a level 22% under the five-year average for the month of January.

Japan is Australia’s top destination for beef exports and they have stayed true to form with the highest level of consignments for January. Although, volumes are well below the normal levels that would be expected for this time in the season at a mere 12,541 tonnes swt.

Curiously, the flows to Japan mirror the trend displayed by the total beef export volumes in that they are also sitting 22% under the five-year average pattern for January.

In another peculiar outcome, Australian beef exports to all “other nations” (excluding the top four beef export destinations of Japan, USA, China and South Korea) nearly eclipsed the flows to Japan by coming in at 12,413 tonnes swt.

Over the last five years Japan has taken around 25% more than the “other nations”, on average, so it is a pretty good effort to see these volumes hold up so well. Indeed, the beef export consignments to “other nations” for January sit just 6% under the average five-year seasonal pattern.

As for the other top four beef export destinations:

• China – Aussie beef export volumes came in at 9,167 tonnes swt. A respectable effort, and just 11% under the five-year average for January.
• USA – Worst outcome of the top four beef export destinations with a measly 7,061 tonnes swt. This represents a level that is 50% below the January average over the last five years.
• South Korea – At 8,421 tonnes swt, beef consignments for January were 14% under the five-year seasonal trend.