Get out the eraser
Market Morsel
Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) has released their March 2025 sheep industry projections, revising previous forecasts from their September 2024 update. Key changes have emerged regarding flock size, lamb slaughter, and sheep slaughter, reflecting updated market conditions and evolving industry dynamics.
The national sheep flock estimates have been adjusted downward from earlier expectations. MLA’s revised estimate for the 2025 sheep flock is now 73.2 million head, representing a reduction of around 4.8% from the September 2024 forecast of approximately 76.9 million head. For 2026, projections indicate further reductions, now forecast at 71.9 million head—a decrease of around 2.8% from September’s forecast of 74.0 million. However, a modest recovery is anticipated for 2027, with the flock expected to slightly rebound to 74.1 million head.
Driving the adjustments to the flock size estimates are revisions to the projected slaughter numbers for both lambs and sheep, reflecting changing market conditions and industry practices.
Lamb slaughter projections received minor downward revisions. For 2025, lamb slaughter has been slightly revised down by 0.4% from the September forecast, now standing at 26.2 million head, compared to the previous estimate of 26.3 million. In 2026, lamb slaughter projections have similarly been adjusted downward by 0.6%, from 25.5 million head to 25.3 million head.
The extended outlook for lamb slaughter shows more stability, suggesting steady demand and supply dynamics. By 2027, lamb slaughter is projected to stabilise near 25.5 million head, reflecting a modest decline year-on-year but aligning closely with earlier MLA forecasts.
However, far more significant were the revisions made to the sheep slaughter forecasts. MLA’s March 2025 update substantially reduced sheep slaughter expectations compared to their September 2024 outlook. Sheep slaughter for 2025 is now projected at 9.8 million head, representing a considerable decrease of 13.4% from the previous forecast of 11.3 million head. This notable revision signals a change in producers’ willingness or necessity to cull ewes and wethers, potentially influenced by seasonal conditions, feed availability, and altered flock rebuilding intentions.
The downward revisions continue into 2026. Sheep slaughter numbers have been adjusted downwards by 9.6%, now projected at 10.0 million head compared to the previous outlook of 11.1 million head. In 2027, MLA forecasts sheep slaughter at approximately 10.3 million head.
Despite downward revisions, sheep slaughter volumes remain historically high compared to previous years. MLA’s latest update indicates a period of substantial, but moderated sheep turnoff, which may reflect producers’ responding strategically to market signals and pasture conditions.
