Good importing Vietnam
The Snapshot
- Since July 2020 total live export volumes have eased significantly, to run 35% under the pattern set during 2019.
- Live export cattle from Australia to Indonesia reduced 45% from October to November, recording the lowest monthly volumes in five years, to see just 19,917 head shipped.
- Compared to the 2019 season average monthly volumes to Vietnam are running 16% higher this year and have remained above the average seasonal pattern throughout the season.
- The solid season for live cattle exports to Vietnam has seen their market share increase from 20.5% in 2019 to 28.5% as of November 2020.
The Detail
Live cattle export data for November 2020 was released during January and it shows that total volumes are down to the lowest monthly level for the 2020 season with 61,814 head reported shipped offshore. August through to October had seen monthly levels close to the average seasonal trend but November has come in 27% under the November average.
The first half of 2020 had seen monthly volumes trekking above average, with the exception of April, with average monthly flows over the six months replicating the levels seen during the 2019 season. However, since the middle of 2020 total live export volumes have eased significantly, to run 35% under the pattern set during 2019.
Live export cattle from Australia to Indonesia has dropped by 45% from October to November, recording the lowest monthly volumes in five years, to see just 19,917 head shipped. This represents levels 57% under the average seasonal trend for November and is a massive 67% below the levels seen during 2019.
In contrast to the Indonesian trade, live cattle exports from Australia to Vietnam has performed well during 2020 with volumes remaining above the average seasonal pattern throughout the season. Compared to the 2019 season monthly volumes to Vietnam are running 16% higher, on average. Indeed, from October to November there was a 28% lift in shipments to see 33,614 head transported.
Live export cattle flows to China have been rather volatile throughout the 2020 season, swinging between 5,000 to 20,000 head a number of times. During the October to November period has seen a downturn in volumes from 17,091 head to nil reported as transported.
The solid season for live cattle exports to Vietnam has seen their market share increase from 20.5% in 2019 to 28.5% as of November 2020. This outperforms the 27.6% market share achieved by Vietnam in 2015. The number one destination for Australian live cattle remains Indonesia, but the subdued performance during 2020 has seen their market share reduce from 52.1% in 2019 to 44.5% this year.
Despite the rather variable performance of Chinese demand for Australian live cattle during 2020 their market share has continued to grow steadily since 2007. This has continued to expand gradually over the current season, increasing from 12.1% in 2019 to 20.4% as of November 2020.
