MLA September 2025 cattle outlook revisions
September 2025 Cattle Projections
The September 2025 update from Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) has lifted its cattle projections sharply from the March release, reflecting improved seasonal conditions and strong processor throughput.
Herd Size Adjustments
The national herd is now expected to hold at 31.0 million head in 2025 and 2026, easing slightly to 30.3 million in 2027. This compares with earlier forecasts of 30.1, 29.2 and 28.8 million respectively.
MLA attributes the more stable outlook to northern regions maintaining high stocking rates while southern producers focus on productivity and core breeding herds
Cattle Slaughter Projections
Slaughter forecasts have also been revised higher, with 9.0 million head expected in 2025, followed by 8.7 million in 2026 and 8.3 million in 2027 – up from 8.5, 8.1 and 7.9 million in the March projections. The elevated turn-off reflects a more efficient, genetically improved herd capable of sustaining high throughput without rapid liquidation
Overall, the latest MLA update suggests a more gradual decline in herd size than initially forecast, but still a continuation of herd contraction into 2027. The upward revisions in slaughter estimates point to ongoing liquidation pressures, as on-farm animal husbandry/genetic and breeding methodology improvements benefit the efficiency of the Australian beef sector.
