Red meat exposure
Market Morsel
There has been much said of late on the new tariff regime of the Trump administration. Let us state clearly that from an economic perspective, particularly for a highly trade oriented country like Australia, that the implementation of tariffs is a poor policy outcome for Australian farmers and a bad decision for the USA. Given, the potential for 25% a tariff to be levied against Australian red meat exports to the USA is a likely outcome we were interested to see the level of exposure Australian red meat trade flows have to the USA on a state-by state basis.
A look at beef export flows from FY 2023/24 it shows that on a percentage basis, by value of the trade, is illustrated below. The chart highlights the percentage of beef exports from each Australian state to the USA compared to the rest of the world (ROW) for the 2023/24 financial year.
Tasmania has the highest share of beef exports directed to the USA, with 79% of its trade value going to that market, while only 21% is sent to the rest of the world. South Australia follows closely, exporting 49% of its beef to the USA and 51% goes elsewhere. The Northern Territory and Victoria also have a significant portion of their beef exports going to the USA, at 37% and 36% respectively, with the majority still destined for the remaining countries.
Queensland and New South Wales have a lower proportion of their beef exports flowing to the USA, at 23% and 21% respectively, meaning most of their trade remains focused on other international markets. Western Australia has the lowest share of beef exports going to the USA, with only 14% of its trade value directed there, while a dominant 86% is exported to the rest of the world.
These figures highlight varying degrees of reliance on the US market across states, with Tasmania and South Australia leading in beef trade to the USA, while Western Australia and New South Wales remain more diversified towards other global markets.
The chart below shows the percentage of sheep meat exports from each Australian state to the USA versus other global markets for the 2023/24 financial year.
South Australia has the highest share of sheep meat exports going to the USA, with 48% of its trade value directed there and 52% going to other nations. Queensland follows, sending 34% of its sheep meat exports to the USA while 66% is exported to the rest of the world. New South Wales also exports a notable portion to the USA, with 29% of its trade value going to that market and 71% to remaining countries.
Victoria and Tasmania have smaller proportions of their sheep meat exports heading to the USA, at 23% and 16%, respectively, meaning the majority of their trade is focused on other markets. Western Australia has the lowest share of sheep meat exports to the USA, with just 10% directed there and 90% exported to various international destinations.
These figures indicate that South Australia has the strongest reliance on the US market for sheep meat exports, while Western Australia and Tasmania maintain a more diversified export approach, focusing predominantly on other global trade partners.
