Signs of life

October saw an increase to beef exports to the USA, part of which was caused by a software upgrade where some flows in late September were only accounted for in October’s data. However, there is also the case that Brazil, who has been a fierce beef export competitor in the USA this season, has maxed out their quota, along with the list of other countries that share their allotment. The only two beef exporters into the US on the quota system with significant spare space is Australia and New Zealand, which have 75% and 49% of quota left, respectively.

October saw 13,752 tonnes of Aussie beef shipped to the USA, up 60% on the September volumes (but remember this is overstated due to the software upgrade). It will be interesting to see if we get an improvement to beef export volumes to the US for the last two months in the year from Australia, particularly now that our cattle is back at a discount to their US equivalent.

Australia’s top beef destination, Japan, had a mediocre month in October with beef export volumes trending sideways. Just 40 tonnes separated trade volumes from September to October with 15,751 tonnes swt recorded last month. This represents beef export volumes to Japan that are 32% below the five year average pattern for October.

The fight for second top place, in terms of market share of Aussie beef exports, heated up over October with China on 18.57% of the trade for 2022 versus South Korea on 18.52% of the trade. Both destinations managed to trek sideways for October. China booked 14,318 tonnes, which is 14% under their normal October levels, according to the five-year trend. Meanwhile, South Korea was a mere 2% off their five-year average levels for October with 13,297 tonnes swt consigned.

Total Australian beef exports managed a 4% gain from September to October with 72,979 tonnes swt of product shipped. A fraction below the volumes seen last October, but still 20% under the five-year average for October which sits at around 90,000 tonnes.