The China syndrome
Lamb Export Summary November 2023
Total Australian lamb export flows for November 2023 came in at 29,869 tonnes swt, which is a 2.4% easing from the levels seen during October 2023. That’s not a bad result at all considering October 2023 was the third highest month for Aussie lamb exports on record. Indeed, the November 2023 result is actually the fourth highest month for lamb export flows on record. So we have had the strongest four months on record in a row, since August 2023.
Compared to the five-year seasonal trend for November the current flows of Aussie lamb exports are running nearly 28% higher and are 30% above the levels set during November 2022.
A summary of the top four Aussie lamb export destinations is as follows.
China – Demand for Aussie lamb from China slipped under the average seasonal trend for the first time since April 2023. There was 5,057 tonnes of Aussie lamb exported to China over November 2023, which represents a 16% decline from the levels exported during October 2023. Compared to the five-year November average levels current flows are sitting just 4% under the average for Australian lamb exports to China, so their drop in demand isn’t too dramatic.
USA – Lamb exports from Australia to the USA saw a 10% increase over November to hit 6,167 tonnes shipped. This represents trade volumes that are 16% stronger than the levels seen during November 2022 and 15% above the November average flows, based on the last five-years of trade data.
UAE – Aussie lamb exports to the United Arab Emirates are booming with a 21% increase on the already elevated October 2023 figures. November 2023 saw 2,637 tonnes of Aussie lamb shipped to the UAE which is now the strongest month on record and 8% higher than the previous record month set in May 2018 of 2,439 tonnes. Compared to the five-year average for November the current flows to the UAE are 55% higher and nearly 48% above the levels seen during November last year.
PNG – Papua New Guinea is also having a strong season for Aussie lamb export demand. November 2023 saw a 5% lift in volumes from October to see 2,188 tonnes exported. This represents trade levels that are 55% above the November 2022 levels and 102% above the November average flows, based on the last five-years of trade data.
