The journey East
Market Morsel
The latest data confirms a distinct slowdown in sheep and lamb transfers from Western Australia to the eastern states during 2025. As at the end of July, a total of 193,600 head had been shipped east, down 74% from the same point in 2024, which had seen nearly 884,000 head transferred by year’s end, the second-highest annual volume on record.
The seasonal transfer chart below highlights just how anomalous the current year has been. Compared to 2024’s extraordinary peak in May, which surpassed 165,000 head, the 2025 line is tracking well below last year for nearly every month with the exception of July. Outside of that, January (7,503 head) and February (4,856) significantly underperformed against the ten-year monthly averages, as visualised by the dotted black line in the same chart.
By extrapolating current volumes forward using average seasonal proportions, full-year 2025 flows may close somewhere near 425,000 head, aligning it with seasons like 2019 (409,112 head) which is well below peak years such as 2020 (1.91 million) or 2024. This is reflected in the chart below which shows 2025’s orange “year-to-date” bar sitting modestly alongside other years, suggesting a middle-of-the-pack result despite the improved flows seen since March 2025.
The Sheep vs Lamb composition of transfers from WA shown above offers further insight into the makeup of these flows. It shows that in 2025, a striking 75% of interstate transfers have been lambs, the highest lamb share on record.
This is a significant departure from historical trends where the split was often closer to even (e.g., 2017) or skewed slightly toward sheep (e.g., 2012,2014 and 2015/16). The increasing reliance on lambs may reflect a range of pressures in WA. Growers aiming to reduce labour and shearing costs, avoid carrying more stock into a dry spring, or capitalise on stronger east coast demand for slaughter ready lambs at a good price discount to the eastern markets.
The noted seasonal decline in sheep volumes, especially during June and July which traditionally marks the trough of long-distance transport during the northern moratorium, also speaks to tightening turnoff options for WA producers. With live export unavailable during the moratorium phase and WA processing capacity stretched, eastern markets remain a vital pressure valve, but not always a consistent or reliable one. While May demonstrated that large eastbound flows are still possible when conditions align, the volatility seen month to month underlines how fragile this outlet remains.
The transfer picture that emerges for 2025 is of a year that started slowly, lifted briefly under pressure, and has since fallen back into subdued territory. While a repeat of 2024’s robust west to east flows now appears out of reach, the eastern market still plays a critical role in easing local oversupply and preserving producer confidence in WA, especially as broader reforms to live export and local processing unfold.