RFK jr and the Australian Greens.

Market Morsel

The next four years are going to be extremely interesting for the world, with the election of Donald Trump.

There will likely be some form of trade dispute, at a minimum with China, but also, as flagged by Trump, potentially on all imports into the USA.

We have spoken about the impact of tariffs and how Australia is heavily reliant on a booming China (for better or worse).

The real joker in the deck in relation to agriculture is RFK jr.

At the moment, it has been reported that RFK jr will be responsible for agriculture and health after running on the platform ‘Make America Healthy Again’.

Whilst specific policies are not exactly forthcoming here is a list of some of areas where he has made comments:

• Anti pesticide.
  • He was on a legal team suing Monsanto for allegations of health concerns related to glyphosate.
  • This case he worked on resulted in a US$289 win, which was later reduced to US$21 on appeals.
• Anti oilseeds
  • He has expressed concerns about using oilseeds in diets, and attributes the rise in chronic disease to consuming goods containing oilseeds.
• Pro organic/regenerative ag
  • Advocates for shifting US agriculture to regenerative methods.

Interestingly, many farmers in the US and Australia heavily support RFK jr’s inclusion in the US government. These policies are very closely aligned with the policies of the Australian Green Party, which most farmers are opposed to (see here and here).

Getting these types of policies across America will be a very big challenge, and I think it is close to impossible.

Firstly, the US has a very strong farm lobby, one which has a huge amount of influence. It is also important to note that farmers in the USA are huge supporters of Trump, and these policies would be highly unpopular.

Secondly, the US adoption of GM crops, which are mainly chemical tolerant varieties, has been huge, with 94% of corn and 96% of all soybeans and cotton being GMO varieties. The policies of RFK jr don’t align well with the industry.

At EP3, our general view is to be very careful when it comes to adjusting policy when it will have detrimental impacts on production. We have written in the past about the example of Sri Lanka (here and here)

On a positive note for Australian farmers, if RFK jr were to introduce his policies on a large scale, their production of grains would dramatically drop, and demand for our grains would rise dramatically.