Decile Drop: Local wheat (December)

Decile Drop - May

The tables below display the spot APW price for ports around Australia. Included are two timeframes of deciles, long term from 2010 & 2016 to present.

The tables display nominal prices relevant to each decile range, which can be used to get an understanding of how high (or low) the current price is in relation to historical pricing. A decile table measures how often, historically, prices have fallen above (or below) a particular pricing point.

It gives a brief snapshot of whether a market has more upside or downside and how large this may be.

For example, if a price is at its 40% decile, this means that 40% of the time, prices have been below that value and 60% of prices higher.

Similarly, a 90% decile means that 90% of the time, prices have been lower and higher just 10% of the time. Please note that a price can’t reside outside of the 100 percentile.

At the bottom of each table is the current price and the percentage decile ranking for that price.

Comment:

Flat prices around the country are strong, with deciles close to the top end of the range, with the exceptions being NSW which have had significantly higher prices in recent years due to the drought. The deciles for basis against CBOT are showing the lowest levels since 2010, a result of two very large crops in a row.

Although deciles are a good tool, it is important not to use them in isolation. The last couple of years of extremes from drought to bounty in the Australian grain crop can cause deciles to also become quite extreme.