Market Morsel: The basis of wheat
The basis is an important factor when pricing grain. It indicates whether our pricing level is at a discount or premium to overseas futures.
This information can be used to decide whether selling is good and whether we should sell (or buy) physical or futures.
To read a summary of basis and its drivers, click here.
Old crop wheat basis is a tale of two sides. Western Australia, whilst experiencing a declining basis, has remained positive. On the other hand, the east coast has remained at a negative level throughout the period from harvest.
The negative basis makes sense and is one of the issues which we flagged ahead of harvest (see here). A large crop that supplies ample for domestic needs and export capacity, results in a lower basis level.
Old crop is becoming less and less important by the day. As a follow-up to this morsel, I will take a look at new crop basis levels.