A real low blow.

Market Morsel

After taking a look at the deflated cattle prices we knew that we had to compare how the recent sheep and lamb price falls have stacked up against the historic current dollar value. ABS consumer price data was used to adjust the c/kg cwt prices for sheep and lamb going back to the mid 1950s so that a value in 2023 dollars was able to be obtained.

The current trade lamb indicator sits at 444c/kg cwt, which is 30% below the 25 year average deflated level of 636c/kg cwt. The 70% range in trade lamb pricing is between 430c/kg cwt to 840c/kg cwt so we are only just hanging onto normal levels. Meanwhile it is pretty rare to see the trade lamb price breach outside the 95% range, which is below 220c/kg cwt or above 1050c/kg cwt. Since the mid 1950’s deflated trade lamb prices have only been outside this extreme range for 5% of the time.

The 25 year deflated average price for mutton sits at 370c/kg cwt and currently the national mutton indicator is at a meagre 131c/kg cwt. So presently mutton pricing is below the long term average deflated price by around 65%. It is also below the lower end of the normal range as the 70% range sits between 210c/kg cwt to 530c/kg cwt. Pricing for mutton would be considered extreme when it is above 685c/kg cwt or below 55c/kg cwt.