Market Morsel: Fair Value Trade Lamb
The updated fair value modelling for the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) for the 2021 season shows a marginal 2% decline in the annual average price from the 816.3 c.kg cwt achieved during 2020 to an annual average price of 799.7 c/kg cwt for 2021.
An appreciating Australian dollar and increasing annual lamb slaughter levels from Meat and Livestock Australia estimates are creating some headwinds for trade lamb prices to move higher into the next few years. However, the prospect of a recovering global economy and the International Monetary Fund’s forecast for higher per capita GDP levels in key lamb export trading partner’s economies should provide support for the ESTLI as we head toward the middle of the decade.
An annual average ESTLI close to the 800c/kg cwt level for the next few years is on the cards, according to the current fair value modelling. The model range highlights that a seasonal peak towards the 900-950c/kg range is possible during the 2021 season. Meanwhile, movements under 700c/kg cwt should attract strong buyer interest.