Where for art thou heavy lamb?

Market Morsel

Heavy lambs have been noted as being in short supply in the first few opening sales for 2023, particularly in the bigger saleyards of Wagga, Ballarat & Bendigo. The week ending 20th January saw the price spread for East coast heavy lambs to the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) lift toward a premium of nearly 10%, normally at this time in the season it would sit between a discount of 1% to a premium of 3%, so the price action since the start of 2023 confirms the reports of a short supply of heavy lambs.

Compared to a selection of other categories of lamb  & mutton in the east and west the heavy lamb spread is the only one sitting at a premium to the ESTLI presently. East coast restocker lambs are running at a 5% discount to the ESTLI, meanwhile East coast Merino lambs are significantly discounted, at nearly 30% under the ESTLI. Normally for this week in the year east coast Restocker lambs sit a small premium and Merino lambs are nearer a 10% discount.

The seasonality chart of the East coast heavy lamb spread highlights that the premium began to widen significantly in mid-November 2022 rising from a 0.7% premium spread to an 8.4% premium spread during the final fortnight of November and for much of the second half of last year spent spent most of the time in premium spread territory.