AgWatchersX EP15: Beef, Grain and the Geopolitical Squeeze
AgWatchersX EP15: Beef, Grain and the Geopolitical Squeeze
Australia’s agricultural exports are facing a perfect storm of tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty and volatile pricing. This week on AgWatchers X, Matt and Andrew dive into market analysis that matters to your farm right now.
South Korea’s 24% beef tariff should have crushed Australian exports, but volumes to Korea remain 39% higher than last year. Meanwhile, China’s 55% tariff has devastated demand, with July exports down 79% compared to last year. The US and Japan continue to import strong volumes, but the picture is shifting rapidly.
Domestically, cattle prices have softened. Heavy steers are back to 430c on the live weight, while feeder cattle have dropped 40-90 cents depending on type.
On grains, wheat hit $380 a tonne on July 24th, then fell to $340 just two weeks later. Andrew makes a critical point: you cannot predict when the market peaks, which matters when you’re making marketing decisions.
The real driver now isn’t weather. It’s geopolitics. Middle East tensions, the Ukraine conflict, and decisions from Trump and Putin are moving prices more than rainfall. With 30% of the world’s wheat coming from the Russia-Ukraine region, further conflict could spike prices dramatically, but a ceasefire would push them down.
Australian wheat looks undervalued globally. Canola is reasonably priced. The harvest outlook is mixed across regions, but Western Australia’s canola crop is looking strong.
There’s also plenty of the usual AgWatchers banter and off-topic moments mixed in.
Listen to the full episode now by clicking below or visiting episode3.net/links