A hard sell in Vietnam

The Detail

The April live cattle export trade figures highlight that Vietnam remains a difficult destination to place Aussie cattle. Toward the end of 2021 shipments of Brazilian live cattle to Vietnam saw demand for Australian exports ease and volumes are yet to recover into 2022. Reports abound that the Brazilian trade is set to continue from June to August.

In 2021 Vietnam accounted for 21.5% of cattle being exported from Australia, so far in 2022 their share sits at just 3.2%. The seasonal chart demonstrates how lacklustre the Vietnamese demand is for Aussie cattle this season with monthly flows unable to get above 2,300 head. In 2021 the monthly average flows were nearly 14,00 head and in 2020 they were above 24,000 head, so it is a big decline.

At least the trade to Indonesia has been increasing as the year has progressed. April 2022 saw the highest monthly volumes to Indonesia since December 2021 with 30,988 head exported. April’s trade volumes were a 3.5 % increase from March. Despite the increased trade, Indonesian demand for Aussie live cattle still sits nearly 18% below the five-year average for April.

Meanwhile, the trade to China took a turn southward, dropping from 12,752 head in March to see just 1,609 transported for April. Current volumes are 81% under the five-year trend for April, but as the pattern for 2021 demonstrates it isn’t unusual to see month to month volatility in trade flows to China.

In terms of market share so far in 2022 China accounts for a little over 25% of the trade and Indonesia is nudging 60% of the total flows.

Looking at the total live cattle export volumes for April 2022 there was a 22% decline over the month to see 37,913 head exported. These levels represent flows that are 52% under the five-year average pattern for April.