Herd liquidation expected

February 2024 Cattle Projections

Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) have released their Australian cattle market projections for 2024 and beyond this week and there have been some significant changes to their herd estimates since their last update from June 2023. MLA have shaved 1.3% off the 2024 herd forecast reducing it from 29 million head to 28.6 million head. For 2025 MLA had originally projected the herd to rise further in their June 2023 forecast update but now they anticipate a herd decline with the 2025 herd estimate coming in 6.4% lower than their June 2023 forecast at 27.4 million head. MLA expect further herd decline into 2026 with the herd easing to 26.8 million head.

There have been some marginal revisions to the annual cattle slaughter figures for the next few years. MLA now expect slaughter volumes in 2024 to hit 7.85 million head, up 3.3% from 7.6 million head forecast from their June 2023 report. Slaughter for 2025 is marginally softer at 8.27 million head, down from 8.35 million head. MLA expect slaughter in 2026 to trek sideways with an annual forecast figure of 8.25 million head.