Herd up, but liquidating

September 2024 Cattle Projections

Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) have released their September cattle market projections and they have changed the Australian herd estimates from the earlier projections to bring them into line with the recently updated Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures. This shows a big lift in the herd estimates, on paper, from their January 2024 report. However, the trend over the next few years is for the Australian cattle herd to decline, according to MLA.

This year MLA expect the herd to decrease by 1.4% from 30.6 million head to 30.2 million head. In 2025 a further 2% fall is forecast taking the herd below 30 million head to 29.6 million. In 2026 a decrease of 3% is anticipated by MLA to see the herd back to 28.7 million head, the lowest herd since 2021.

Underpinning the herd drawdown is a higher revision to annual cattle slaughter figures for 2024 and 2025. MLA have revised the 2024 slaughter up 4.2% from their earlier projections and now anticipate annual slaughter this year to hit 8.2 million head. An additional 1.3% lift in slaughter has been forecast for 2025 taking the slaughter projections to 8.4 million head next year. In 2026 MLA now expect slightly softer annual slaughter with a 3.2% drop from their previous estimates to see 8 million head of cattle turned off.