Promising start
Market Morsel
Trade export figures for January 2025 were released this week and show a good start to the season for Aussie mutton exports, meanwhile lamb exports also showed some green shoots in a handful of key markets.
Total mutton exports for January came in at 19,776 tonnes swt, which was a 17% improvement on the January 2024 levels and sits 42% higher than the average January flows of mutton exported looking back at the last five years of the trade. Total lamb exports were a little softer than this time last year with 24,177 tonnes reported shipped over the month. This is a 4% decline on the prior year for January flows, but it must be noted January 2024 was a record high for January, so coming off the best January result on record by such a small amount is a pretty good effort. January 2025 still sits 24% above the five-year average export flows of lamb seen over January.
A look at the market share of top trade destinations for mutton shows that China remains in the dominant spot for early 2025. Also noticeable in the last few years is the rise of mutton demand from Malaysia, which has out performed the USA in recent years. Indeed, the US has been demoted to fourth top trade destination now behind Malaysia in second place and Saudi Arabia in third spot.
In terms of the top trade destinations for Australian mutton exports, the following was noted.
China – Flows of mutton to China in January came in at 7,326 tonnes, a 15% increase from the January 2024 levels. It is a very solid start for Chinese mutton demand from Australia as the current flows have set a new record high for January and sit 52% above the five-year January average trade volumes.
Malaysia – Mutton to Malaysia also hit a new January record level at 2,792 tonnes. This represents 63% gain on the January 2024 volumes and sits 71% above the January average, based on the last five-years of mutton exports.
The others – The Aussie mutton flows to “other” sites, excluding the top two of China and Malaysia, was also improved with the January flows noted at 9,658 tonnes. Last year the January exports were 8,845 tonnes so this year has seen a 9% lift in the trade. Current January mutton export volumes are running nearly 30% above the five-year average levels usually seen at the start of the year.
The market share of Aussie lamb exports continues to see the USA expand its footprint over second placed China. Also notable in the recent trends has been the rise of the UAE in the last three years to narrow the gap between them and the USA.
In terms of the top trade destinations for Australian lamb exports, the following was noted.
USA – The USA took 6,020 tonnes of Aussie lamb in January 2025, a new record level for January. Compared to last January Aussie lamb export to the US are 6% stronger and sit at levels 30% above the five-year January average flows.
China – Lamb flows to China during January 2025 are close to levels seen during January 2024, with only 144 tonnes separating the two months. This year was softer than 2024 with 3,414 tonnes reported shipped, which is almost bang on the five-year average for January lamb export flows to China.
UAE – The United Arab Emirates are about to enter into a free trade agreement with Australia in 2025 so the prospects for continued growth of red meat exports appears firm. Lamb exports have started the season in very good condition with a reported 2,516 tonnes shipped over the month of January. This is a new record volume for January to the UAE and comes in nearly 14% above January 2024 and 56% above the January average levels, based on the last five years of the trade. It will be interesting to see how the FTA impacts trade volumes as the year progresses.
The others – Trade to the “other” regions (excluding China and USA) has opened the year nearly 8% below last January’s volumes. However, January 2024 was a record for the opening month’s export volumes so all things considered an easing this year shouldn’t ring any alarm bells. There was still 14,743 tonnes shipped in January 2025 and this is representative of trade volumes that are 29% above the January average flows, based on the last five years of the trade.
