Market Morsel: Urea pricing stabilised?

Inputs | 30th May 2023 | By Andrew Whitelaw

Market Morsel

Globally urea prices have fallen in 2023, and for the past two months have pretty much stabilised.

In recent months, gas prices have come under pressure. The expectations are that pricing will not rise much higher in the coming months as the northern hemisphere summer reduces demand for heating.

There are expectations of an Indian tender in the coming weeks, where they will look to purchase 1mmt. This large tender hasn’t quelled the bearish tone in the marketplace.

The first chart below shows the Urea price in the middle east (our dominant supplier), in both USD and AUD. Have they fallen in your area? If so let us know here

The second chart shows our ‘CFR’ or landed Australia modelled pricing. It is important to note that this is an average of the month, and is not the price to be expected at retail.

The third chart shows the ratio of wheat/canola to urea i.e. how many tonnes of you would need to sell to purchase a tonne of urea.

The critical numbers.

  • During May, the price of urea loaded on a boat in the Middle East averaged A$478, up from A$467 the previous month.
  • April 2023 pricing is down A$513 from April 2022.
  • The replacement value landed in Australia is approximately A$540 to A$560
  • The affordability of urea versus canola/wheat has dropped – albeit only fractionally.